2025 Annual Chair and CEO Dinner: Future Geopolitical Impacts on UK Business

With over 200 Chairs and CEOs from across the commercial spectrum, the discussion focused on the economic and the geopolitical environment within the UK and globally, and the challenges facing industry and commerce. 

Wider Geopolitical Environment 

Rupert examined the broad geopolitical landscape. Regarding defence and security, European countries have gained from significant levels of U.S. social spending and support. Rupert asserted that peace and security in Europe have been largely facilitated by substantial U.S. defence expenditure, which extended its protection to Europe. 

The economic impact of COVID-19 has already heightened debt levels across Europe. Combined with demographic challenges such as an ageing population and low birth rates, increasing defence spending presents considerable political and policy challenges for both Europe and across the UK. 

The UK Environment 

Rupert examined how the UK must further secure its position within the global trade platform. The UK needs to adapt efficiently and effectively to navigate headwinds. Britain's identity as a free-trading nation has developed over 200 years - we are known for innovation, pragmatism, and global engagement, with industry and trade being central to the economy. 

In the current global context, the UK has the opportunity to utilise its historical strengths: adherence to rules based approaches, reliability, encouragement of trade, openness to innovation, sensible regulation, and practical decision-making, emphasising its position as a dependable business partner. 

Challenges and Outlook 

Winston Churchill, Rupert Soames’ grandfather, remarked that: “Some see private enterprise as a predatory target to be shot, others as a cow to be milked, but few are those who see it as a sturdy horse pulling the wagon”. 

Two significant challenges currently facing the UK were explored. First, the accrued deficit following Covid, with interest payments now the fastest-growing element of national expenditure at £100 million per year. Second, that over 20% of people of working age in the UK – 9 million people – are currently not employed. 

The consequence of the level of debt is that without economic growth of at least 2%, there will be a need for substantial and continued increases in tax or reductions in government spending. Economic growth, driven by investment, is seen as the solution to this issue. 

Addressing investment concerns, The Employment Rights Bill includes some provisions that many employers may support. There remains potential for adjustments to the Bill as it is currently drafted. 

The Odgers Berndtson team warmly thank Rupert for his impressive address and participation in the thoughtful and open discussion.  

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